Iron Man 2 is Going to Suck

You heard me. I’m putting that prediction out there in ether right now. I’ve had a bad feeling about this thing ever since I saw the first trailer. I don’t think I’m the only one, but I do think that far too many of you are still glowing from the first one, and you’re not thinking clearly about what’s coming. Now maybe the producers of said summertime sequel scoff derisively at me for even caring, but I think it does matter that this film might not satisfy its audience. I think it does matter that the parking lot consensus is going to be, “The first one was better.”

First, let me tell you why I think it’s going to be bad. Then, we’ll discuss what that badness will and won’t mean.

Why:

1. Mickey Rourke looks stupid. What the crap? This is the best they could come up with? You seriously cannot play this B-movie crap in the post-Heath-Ledger-Joker world. It doesn’t work. You people got ahold of one of the hottest actors, attached him to the biggest possible summer event movie, and ruined both of those good things with the stupidest costume I’ve ever seen. Those electric whips of his are not even a little frightening. Stick with Sam Rockwell in a dapper suit and a Congressional hearing. I’ll bet you twenty bucks those two things are twice as frightening to Tony Stark as anything Whiplash throws out.

2. ScarJo. Putting a popular actress in a skin tight black suit and calling that a “costume,” no matter how faithful to the comics, is a failure of imagination. Prepare to yawn your way through every scene she’s in. Also I don’t like her.

3. Too many damned characters. The problem with a movie like “Iron Man 2″ is that it’s more designed for lunch boxes than DVDs. This is a franchise machine, trying to pump out as many action figures and theme park rides as it can possibly stuff into two hours. Did we really need Whiplash, Black Widow, Sam Rockwell and Samuel L Jackson with an eye patch? Superhero movies with far fewer characters than that have died a horrible, bloated death. Yes, “Spider Man 3,” I am looking at you.

4. Underdog no longer. When Jon Favreau and company made the original “Iron Man,” no one was paying attention. Robert Downey Jr, his career still a question mark, had nothing to lose and blazed an interesting new trail through the lead role. The script, and I use that term loosely, was perpetually unfinished. The whole thing was shot in a loose, collaborative style more akin to “Ocean’s Eleven” than “Spider Man.” That was its magic.

That magic is dead. The Man has caught on. Iron Man is now an A-character, and now he has to sponsor sports cars and appease the widest possible demographic. Whatever careless frivolity exists in the sequel will be a processed, fraudulent version of the original. Picture that studio executive from “Barton Fink” talking about how he can get a dozen writers to give him that “Barton Fink feel.” That’s what you’ve got here.

5. Hindsight. Let’s be real, Dear Reader: the first one wasn’t that good. In fact it was quite flawed. It was fun because it surprised everyone, and the novelty of it was strong, but go watch the thing again and you might be surprised. The third act is weak sauce, and has nothing bordering on believable characters or emotional resonance. The action in the film is an afterthought; the climax is so tepid that Favreau himself has admitted his displeasure with it. It’s a fun movie, it’s an original movie, and it’s an exceedingly lovable movie. But be honest with yourself, none of those things make it a great movie. It’s not. And whatever was good about it lacks the horsepower necessary to project a sufficiently warming glow over the sequel.

Okay. So that’s why I’m skeptical. And now what it means…

1. The movie will kill on opening weekend. And I’m not debating that. I could blather like an idiot for two days, I know you’re all still going to see this thing. And so am I, most likely. That’s fine. But…

2. They’re shooting themselves in the foot. Once you trade a franchise’s artistic credibility, it is usually gone forever. Nothing short of a full reboot will bring your Tomato-Meter back once you sideline it. Hollywood likes to think they can use marketing budgets to control people, and to a certain extent they can, but their victory is short-lived, and I’m surprised they still haven’t learned the value of a satisfied customer. The first time you put an audience in the theater and make them feel tricked, you permanently change the product you’re selling. After “Iron Man 2″ becomes thought of as a disappointment, the franchise’s value will drop. And one way or the next, that will mean less money for everyone.

How can they not see that this is true? Look at how “Shrek” went from one of the highest-grossers in existence to an afterthought with one mildly disappointing sequel. Look at the “Matrix” sequels. And even if “Spider Man 3″ made money, it was a Pyrrhic victory and everyone involved knows it. Is this rule always true? No. “Pirates of the Caribbean” imploded ten minutes into the first sequel and still made untold millions. You can thank your kids for that, who stubbornly refused to stop seeing the damned things.

But even if it isn’t always true, it’s true enough. If these people want to treat storytelling like a business and nothing else, do they really want to bet $200 million and not eliminate a 50% chance of abject failure? Who knows what kind of ridiculous crap they do to keep Robert Downey Jr happy, why can’t they bend over backwards a little for an emotionally involving story?

And before you get too depressed by Jack Sparrow and his terrible films, remember that franchises like “Bourne,” “Lord of the Rings,” and Nolan’s “Batman” can outpace them any day. And why? Because they made their customers happy. I don’t understand how you can get away from the basic truth that disappointing movies are bad for business.

So yes. “Iron Man 2″ will make tons of money. For a few weeks. But “Iron Man 3″ will be in a different boat entirely. People won’t be waiting for it in the same way, because the franchise will have changed in their eyes. It’s ironic to me that they’re going to ruin “Iron Man 2″ in order to build the franchise, and yet the value of the franchise is the price they will pay for it.